All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Elkhart Early Bird Invitational |
NIC Stomp |
Northwood Invitational |
South Bend City |
Minutemen Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Invitational |
NIC / NLC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | |
8/15 |
8/21 |
8/28 |
9/2 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
| Team Rating |
677 |
700 |
664 |
607 |
617 |
594 |
572 |
860 |
754 |
807 |
801 |
697 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
610 |
520 |
607 |
617 |
594 |
572 |
670 |
745 |
807 |
801 |
697 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Elkhart Early Bird Invitational |
NIC Stomp |
Northwood Invitational |
South Bend City |
Minutemen Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Invitational |
NIC / NLC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| 262 |
Meg Baxter |
10 |
20:37 |
20:05 |
|
20:23 |
20:51 |
20:18 |
19:55 |
|
21:09 |
20:51 |
20:47 |
20:40 |
| 407 |
Tess Collins |
11 |
21:14 |
21:12 |
20:37 |
21:14 |
20:59 |
22:19 |
21:05 |
|
21:37 |
21:53 |
21:55 |
21:02 |
| 418 |
Cam Ritschard |
9 |
21:16 |
|
|
21:03 |
21:02 |
20:58 |
20:59 |
21:20 |
21:31 |
21:44 |
21:30 |
21:05 |
| 500 |
Ava Rousseve |
11 |
21:31 |
21:05 |
20:54 |
21:23 |
20:58 |
20:56 |
20:59 |
21:41 |
21:27 |
21:57 |
22:22 |
22:12 |
| 894 |
Mary Clare Elliott |
12 |
22:28 |
|
21:05 |
24:25 |
22:13 |
21:12 |
|
22:07 |
|
23:02 |
23:59 |
22:24 |
| 912 |
Kiley McGuire |
11 |
22:30 |
22:12 |
22:08 |
21:50 |
22:17 |
|
22:26 |
22:50 |
23:05 |
|
|
|
| 919 |
Molly Bellia |
10 |
22:31 |
|
22:09 |
22:33 |
22:16 |
22:15 |
22:12 |
22:11 |
22:37 |
22:49 |
23:19 |
22:44 |
| 1,024 |
Mia Ritschard |
11 |
22:44 |
|
|
|
24:04 |
23:23 |
22:42 |
22:52 |
22:42 |
23:08 |
22:34 |
22:32 |
| 1,199 |
Lee Erdman |
10 |
23:07 |
23:02 |
22:52 |
22:42 |
22:19 |
|
23:26 |
23:22 |
23:27 |
|
|
|
| 1,224 |
Margaret Hopkins |
11 |
23:10 |
24:02 |
22:47 |
22:56 |
|
23:09 |
22:58 |
23:23 |
23:15 |
|
|
|
| 1,302 |
Grace Yuhas |
12 |
23:19 |
22:46 |
22:55 |
|
23:11 |
23:06 |
23:20 |
23:22 |
24:12 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
12.0 |
331 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.6 |
14.1 |
21.0 |
27.0 |
27.5 |
9.2 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
3.7 |
107 |
|
0.0 |
33.8 |
65.7 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.0 |
62 |
|
99.9 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Meg Baxter |
0.8% |
135.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.8% |
0.8% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Meg Baxter |
100% |
55.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Tess Collins |
100% |
81.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.1% |
| Cam Ritschard |
100% |
83.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98.9% |
| Ava Rousseve |
100% |
95.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
92.4% |
| Mary Clare Elliott |
100% |
141.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.3% |
| Molly Bellia |
100% |
142.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.1% |
| Mia Ritschard |
100% |
148.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.4% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Meg Baxter |
100% |
11.9 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
5.9 |
10.1 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
16.3 |
13.6 |
8.2 |
5.2 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Tess Collins |
100% |
19.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
3.2 |
5.6 |
8.1 |
9.4 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
9.3 |
8.1 |
7.1 |
6.3 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Cam Ritschard |
100% |
19.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
6.4 |
8.8 |
10.4 |
10.5 |
10.0 |
8.9 |
7.6 |
6.6 |
5.6 |
4.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Ava Rousseve |
100% |
24.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.9 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Mary Clare Elliott |
100% |
41.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Molly Bellia |
100% |
42.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Mia Ritschard |
100% |
47.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Meg Baxter |
5.7 |
|
|
0.2 |
1.1 |
4.3 |
65.7 |
16.9 |
7.7 |
3.3 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Tess Collins |
9.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.6 |
8.8 |
11.8 |
15.4 |
20.6 |
16.3 |
10.6 |
6.2 |
4.4 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Cam Ritschard |
10.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.4 |
6.1 |
10.2 |
14.6 |
18.4 |
18.4 |
11.8 |
7.6 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
| Ava Rousseve |
12.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
6.8 |
11.6 |
18.7 |
14.2 |
12.2 |
11.2 |
9.5 |
6.4 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Mary Clare Elliott |
21.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
5.3 |
9.8 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
11.7 |
9.6 |
8.2 |
7.0 |
| Molly Bellia |
22.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
3.8 |
7.8 |
11.4 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
8.5 |
| Mia Ritschard |
25.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
5.1 |
6.9 |
8.9 |
9.4 |
10.3 |
|
